Çorum FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Corum Stadyumu to take on Çorum FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Çorum FK have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Kasımpaşa's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Çorum FK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.47 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.015 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.188. Data: 1 Çorum FK games / 35 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 38% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 34%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Çorum FK at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Çorum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 38% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Çorum FK 1.47 / Kasımpaşa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.015 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Çorum FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Kasımpaşa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Corum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Çorum FK 0 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 38% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Çorum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Çorum FK's attack at 0.86x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Çorum FK's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Çorum FK Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.58
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Kasımpaşa xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.39 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Çorum FK's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Çorum FK on 1.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Çorum FK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Çorum FK's scoring rate against Kasımpaşa's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Çorum FK have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Çorum FK
0
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa?
From 1 meetings on record, Çorum FK have won 0, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Çorum FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Çorum FK's games and 100% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Çorum FK's recent games and 0% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Çorum FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Çorum FK 0-1 at Corum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Çorum FK 1.47 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Çorum FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Çorum FK attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Çorum FK 38% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 34%, with Çorum FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Çorum FK 100%, Kasımpaşa 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Çorum FK 1.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Çorum FK managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.