Çorum FK vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 56%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Çorum FK vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Çorum FK and Amed meet at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Çorum FK have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.25 conceded. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Amed's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: W L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Amed arrive in superior form — a 0.75 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading

Çorum FK half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.

Amed half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Çorum FK 50% versus Amed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Çorum FK 75% | Amed 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.80 xG and Amed 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.928 / defence 0.962 | Amed attack 0.898 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.183. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Çorum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Çorum FK games / 4 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Çorum FK 56% | Draw 23% | Amed 21%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Amed 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Çorum FK (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Çorum FK at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Çorum FK 50% | Amed 50%.

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