Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 80% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Samsunspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 0D 2L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Samsunspor stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Samsunspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 2 for Samsunspor and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Oct 2026, ended Trabzonspor 3–0 Samsunspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 60% versus Samsunspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Samsunspor 56%). Note also that Samsunspor surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.86 xG and Samsunspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.356 / defence 0.632 | Samsunspor attack 0.922 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.356 — their 2.86 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Trabzonspor have a tight defence (rating 0.632), which is pulling Samsunspor's projected output down. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 45 games and Samsunspor's last 45.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 80% | Draw 13% | Samsunspor 7%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.25 | Draw 7.95 | Samsunspor 13.89. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (80%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 80% | Draw 13% | Samsunspor 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Trabzonspor 2.86 / Samsunspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.356 / def 0.632 | Samsunspor attack 0.922 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.86
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Samsunspor xG
51%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 80% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Trabzonspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.86. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 45 games and Samsunspor's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
80%
1.25
13%
7.95
7%
13.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.86
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.63
0.77
Samsunspor xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.95
13%
Draw
13.89
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
6%
17.50
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.77 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 28W 10D 7L from 45 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 17L across 45 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 14W 6D 2L from their last 22 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across their last 22 away games, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 28W 10D 7L in their last 45 games (2.09 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Samsunspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 54% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 54% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 82% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.