Trabzonspor 2-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Samsunspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 16). Kick-off is Thursday 11 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Samsunspor stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's away record over their last 9 away games: 1W 1D 7L (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Samsunspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.926 / defence 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.806 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.280. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.319 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 53 games and Samsunspor's last 18.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.72 | Draw 3.92 | Samsunspor 6.12. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 9 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 56% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 16 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Thursday 11 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.83 / Samsunspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.926 / def 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.806 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Samsunspor xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 11 January 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 16) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 58% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Trabzonspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 53 games and Samsunspor's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.92
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.72
0.89
Samsunspor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
38.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.89 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 10W 3D 5L from 18 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 10L across 18 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 5W 1D 2L from their last 8 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 0D 7L across their last 8 away games, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 61%.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 50%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 50% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Samsunspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 50% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 62% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Samsunspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Samsunspor 2-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Samsunspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.