Trabzonspor vs Rizespor Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Rizespor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Rizespor travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 0D 2L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Rizespor have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 5 wins for Trabzonspor, 4 for Rizespor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2026, ended Trabzonspor 4–3 Rizespor — a Trabzonspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 60% versus Rizespor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Rizespor 58%). Note also that Rizespor surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.96 xG and Rizespor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.356 / defence 0.632 | Rizespor attack 0.907 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.356 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor have a tight defence (rating 0.632), which is pulling Rizespor's projected output down. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 45 games and Rizespor's last 45.

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.52 | Draw 4.82 | Rizespor 7.36. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 50% (last 10 away games).

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