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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Rizespor travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Papara Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 1.00 (Rizespor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Rizespor have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Trabzonspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Rizespor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rizespor have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Rizespor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 59% | Rizespor 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.16 xG and Rizespor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.185 / defence 0.974 | Rizespor attack 1.052 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.179. Data: 66 Trabzonspor games / 66 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Rizespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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