🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Trabzonspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Trabzonspor, 1.50 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Kasımpaşa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Trabzonspor, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Kasımpaşa — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.

The historical record gives Trabzonspor a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 68% and Kasımpaşa 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Kasımpaşa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.77 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.064 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Trabzonspor games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 48% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 25%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 4.00. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights