Trabzonspor 0-3 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Trabzonspor welcome Gençlerbirliği S.K. to Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gençlerbirliği S.K. stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Trabzonspor have won 0, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 7.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2025, ended Trabzonspor 3–4 Gençlerbirliği S.K. — a Gençlerbirliği S.K. win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Trabzonspor trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Gençlerbirliği S.K. trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 70% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%). Note also that Gençlerbirliği S.K. surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.67 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.062 / defence 0.956 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.551 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.128. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating of 0.551 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 69 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 33.

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 29% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 10%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.64 | Draw 3.48 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 9.72. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 90% (last 10 home games) | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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