🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 74% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 1.40 PPG versus Gaziantep FK's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK, with 2 draws in between.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Gaziantep FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Gaziantep FK 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.334 / defence 0.755 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.970 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.218. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Trabzonspor games / 60 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Gaziantep FK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 74% — clear model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights