Trabzonspor 3-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 74% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 1.40 PPG versus Gaziantep FK's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Gaziantep FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Gaziantep FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.334 / defence 0.755 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.970 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.218. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Trabzonspor games / 60 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Gaziantep FK 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 74% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 55% | xG Trabzonspor 2.65 / Gaziantep FK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.334 / def 0.755 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.970 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor 3 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 74% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (6 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 2 | Gaziantep FK 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.33x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
74%
1.34
16%
6.37
10%
10.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.54
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.37
16%
Draw
10.13
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
7%
14.15
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
143.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.89 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 28W 12D 20L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.60 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.00 PPG from 29 outings (18W 4D 7L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 4D 18L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
0
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 55%, Gaziantep FK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Trabzonspor and 72% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Trabzonspor's games and 62% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Trabzonspor's matches and 72% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Gaziantep FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.65 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.33 / defence 0.76 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 74% | Draw 16% | Gaziantep FK 10%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.