Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Göztepe meet at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Göztepe have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Göztepe away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 for Göztepe and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Trabzonspor 2–1 Göztepe — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 61% versus Göztepe 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Göztepe 46%). Note also that Göztepe surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.49 xG and Göztepe 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.167 / defence 0.946 | Göztepe attack 0.963 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.134. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 67 games and Göztepe's last 67.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 23%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.24 | Draw 3.11 | Göztepe 4.32. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.49 / Göztepe 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.167 / def 0.946 | Göztepe attack 0.963 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Göztepe xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Göztepe FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Göztepe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Göztepe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 45% chance of winning, Göztepe a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trabzonspor and Göztepe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.17x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.96x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 67 games and Göztepe's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
45%
2.24
32%
3.11
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.03
Göztepe xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Göztepe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.03 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 32W 20D 15L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Göztepe's form line: 26W 23D 18L from 67 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.51 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.03 PPG from their last 33 home games (19W 10D 4L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 9W 10D 14L from their last 33 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Göztepe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Trabzonspor vs Göztepe Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 32W 20D 15L in their last 67 games (1.73 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 26W 23D 18L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Göztepe away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.03 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Göztepe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Trabzonspor and Göztepe, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Göztepe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Göztepe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Göztepe?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 61%, Göztepe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Trabzonspor) and 46% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Göztepe in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Göztepe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Göztepe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Trabzonspor's games and 58% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Göztepe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 46% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Göztepe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 70% of Göztepe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 32, as Trabzonspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.49 xG and Göztepe 1.03 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Göztepe attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 23%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Göztepe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.73 PPG, Göztepe 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.