Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trabzonspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trabzonspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 2.10 PPG versus Fenerbahçe's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Trabzonspor's games and 60% of Fenerbahçe's (from Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Trabzonspor, 5 for Fenerbahçe and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Trabzonspor 0–1 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 82%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Fenerbahçe 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 53% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.40 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.235 / defence 0.949 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.505 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.316. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.505, which lifts their away xG to 1.88. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 57 games and Fenerbahçe's last 57.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 26% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 46%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 3.87 | Draw 3.52 | Fenerbahçe 2.18. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 26% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.40 / Fenerbahçe 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.235 / def 0.949 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.505 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Fenerbahçe xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Trabzonspor 2 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 26% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 57 games and Fenerbahçe's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
26%
3.87
28%
3.52
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.28
1.88
Fenerbahçe xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
4%
25.37
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.88 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 18D 13L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.33 PPG from 57 outings (40W 13D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 16W 9D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.29 points per game from their last 28 away games (19W 7D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.42 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 61%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fenerbahçe in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 26W 18D 13L in their last 57 games (1.68 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 40W 13D 4L in their last 57 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.04 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 4-1 Trabzonspor.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
6
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 57%, Fenerbahçe 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Trabzonspor) and 61% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trabzonspor's games and 57% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Trabzonspor's matches and 61% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 75% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Trabzonspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 2-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.40 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.88 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.50 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 26% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 46%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.