Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Trabzonspor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fatih Karagümrük travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fatih Karagümrük's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Trabzonspor 4–3 Fatih Karagümrük — a Trabzonspor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Trabzonspor and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 65% versus Fatih Karagümrük 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 48%). Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.46 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.264 / defence 1.051 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.802 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.264. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 2.46 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 1.395 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 59 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 23.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.53 | Draw 4.52 | Fatih Karagümrük 8.12. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (66%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.46 / 1.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Trabzonspor 2.46 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.264 / def 1.051 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.802 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Fatih Karagümrük xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor 3 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 66% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.26x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 59 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
66%
1.53
22%
4.52
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.52
1.07
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
9%
11.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
1%
94.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.07 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 23 games, going 14W 6D 3L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 0.57 PPG from 23 outings (3W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.52 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across their last 11 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.36 points per game from their last 11 away games (1W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.87 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 14W 6D 3L in their last 23 games (2.09 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 16L in their last 23 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 5-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 64%, Fatih Karagümrük 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Trabzonspor) and 73% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Trabzonspor's matches and 73% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 82% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.46 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.07 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 59/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 66% | Draw 22% | Fatih Karagümrük 12%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.