Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (89%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Papara Park plays host to Trabzonspor versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L at Papara Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eyüpspor (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Trabzonspor's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Trabzonspor, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Eyüpspor — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
The historical record gives Trabzonspor a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Eyüpspor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Eyüpspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 3.29 xG and Eyüpspor 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.422 / defence 0.711 | Eyüpspor attack 0.634 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 3.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Trabzonspor games / 42 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 89% | Draw 8% | Eyüpspor 3%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.12 | Draw 12.50 | Eyüpspor 33.33. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (89%) — a 86pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 89% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Eyüpspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 89% | Draw 8% | Eyüpspor 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 40% | xG Trabzonspor 3.29 / Eyüpspor 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.422 / def 0.711 | Eyüpspor attack 0.634 / def 1.473 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (89%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.29
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Eyüpspor xG
40%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 89% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 3% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.29. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.63x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 4-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
89%
1.13
8%
12.48
3%
32.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
4 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.29
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.82
0.53
Eyüpspor xG
1.13
89%
Home win
12.48
8%
Draw
32.05
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
4%
26.92
Win to Nil
52%
1.91
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.29 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.53 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 89%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 25W 10D 7L from 42 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 24L across 42 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 13W 6D 2L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 3W 5D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.83 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 games (2.02 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.14 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 57%, Eyüpspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 48% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 38% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 48% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.