Trabzonspor 1-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 61%, yet in-form Eyüpspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Papara Park plays host to Trabzonspor versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off: Monday 10 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Eyüpspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Eyüpspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Trabzonspor 0–0 Eyüpspor — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Eyüpspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Eyüpspor 48%). Note also that Eyüpspor surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.386 / defence 0.818 | Eyüpspor attack 0.986 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.240. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.386 — their 2.06 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 58 games and Eyüpspor's last 21.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.65 | Draw 4.33 | Eyüpspor 6.15. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Monday 10 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Trabzonspor 2.06 / Eyüpspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.386 / def 0.818 | Eyüpspor attack 0.986 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 10 February 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 61% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.99x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 58 games and Eyüpspor's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.33
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
48.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.00 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 7W 8D 6L from 21 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 4L across 21 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eyüpspor by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Trabzonspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 7W 3D 1L from their last 11 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across their last 11 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.62 scored and 0.90 conceded. Trabzonspor's scoring rate against Eyüpspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Eyüpspor in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 7W 8D 6L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 18 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 March 2026: Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Eyüpspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Trabzonspor) and 46% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Trabzonspor's matches and 46% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 73% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.39 / defence 0.82 against Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Eyüpspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.