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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 61%, yet in-form Eyüpspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Papara Park plays host to Trabzonspor versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Monday 10 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L at Papara Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Eyüpspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Eyüpspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Eyüpspor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.386 / defence 0.818 | Eyüpspor attack 0.986 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.240. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Trabzonspor games / 21 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Eyüpspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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