Trabzonspor 3-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Beşiktaş travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Papara Park this season.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 2, Beşiktaş 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 55% versus Beşiktaş 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 49% | Beşiktaş 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.33 xG and Beşiktaş 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.260 / defence 0.776 | Beşiktaş attack 1.123 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.300. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Trabzonspor games / 51 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 35% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Beşiktaş 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 50% | Beşiktaş 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 35% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Trabzonspor 1.33 / Beşiktaş 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.260 / def 0.776 | Beşiktaş attack 1.123 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Beşiktaş xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor 3 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 37% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (8 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 4 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
37%
2.68
35%
2.87
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Beşiktaş xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.13 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 16D 12L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.71 PPG from 51 outings (24W 15D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.67 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 15W 8D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.58 points per game from 26 outings (10W 11D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.67 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 65%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 23W 16D 12L in their last 51 games (1.67 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.04 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 54%, Beşiktaş 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 31% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 31% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 3-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.33 xG and Beşiktaş 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Beşiktaş attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 37% | Draw 35% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 49%, Beşiktaş 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.67 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.