Trabzonspor 3-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Beşiktaş travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Beşiktaş 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Beşiktaş trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Beşiktaş 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.30 xG and Beşiktaş 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.213 / defence 0.973 | Beşiktaş attack 1.171 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.370. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Trabzonspor games / 39 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 29% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 40%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Beşiktaş 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 29% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Trabzonspor 1.30 / Beşiktaş 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.213 / def 0.973 | Beşiktaş attack 1.171 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor 3 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 29% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
29%
3.50
31%
3.20
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.86
1.56
Beşiktaş xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
6%
16.66
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.56 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 6D 15L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 2.18 PPG from 39 outings (25W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 2.00 points per game from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.10 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 18W 6D 15L in their last 39 games (1.54 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 25W 10D 4L in their last 39 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.11 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 42%, Beşiktaş 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 63% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 53% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 3-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.30 xG and Beşiktaş 1.56 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 29% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 40%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Beşiktaş 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Trabzonspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.