Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Trabzonspor, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Başakşehir — Başakşehir have 2 wins, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2025, ended Trabzonspor 4–3 Başakşehir — a Trabzonspor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Trabzonspor and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 60% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 54% | Başakşehir 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.48 xG and Başakşehir 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.230 / defence 0.921 | Başakşehir attack 1.059 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.193. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 65 games and Başakşehir's last 65.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.40 | Draw 3.20 | Başakşehir 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Trabzonspor 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.48 / Başakşehir 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.230 / def 0.921 | Başakşehir attack 1.059 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Başakşehir xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 42% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.23x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.06x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 65 games and Başakşehir's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.20
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.64
1.16
Başakşehir xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.16 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 65 games, going 32W 19D 14L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.55 PPG from 65 outings (29W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.55 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 19W 9D 4L across their last 32 home games, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 32 away games (14W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.65 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 32W 19D 14L in their last 65 games (1.77 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 29W 14D 22L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.06 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Başakşehir 0-3 Trabzonspor on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 6, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 59%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Trabzonspor) and 59% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Başakşehir in 31%; Başakşehir in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Trabzonspor's matches and 59% of Başakşehir's.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 66% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 30, as Trabzonspor and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.48 xG and Başakşehir 1.16 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 54%, Başakşehir 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.77 PPG, Başakşehir 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.