İstanbulspor 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trabzonspor make the trip to Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu to face İstanbulspor in Süper Lig (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
İstanbulspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, İstanbulspor have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 1.10 PPG clear of İstanbulspor over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for İstanbulspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2023, ended İstanbulspor 0–4 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
İstanbulspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 48% versus Trabzonspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 56% | Trabzonspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.28 xG and Trabzonspor 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.819 / defence 1.189 | Trabzonspor attack 1.344 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.255. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.344, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 51 games and Trabzonspor's last 50.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 24% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 54%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 4.17 | Draw 4.53 | Trabzonspor 1.85. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.28 / 2.00) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 24% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG İstanbulspor 1.28 / Trabzonspor 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.819 / def 1.189 | Trabzonspor attack 1.344 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Trabzonspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor?
İstanbulspor 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 24% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.34x) against İstanbulspor's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from İstanbulspor's last 51 games and Trabzonspor's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
24%
4.17
22%
4.53
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
3.29
2.00
Trabzonspor xG
4.17
24%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
3%
30.94
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 2.00 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
İstanbulspor's recent record stands at 14W 7D 29L from 50 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 24W 8D 18L across 50 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over İstanbulspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, İstanbulspor have managed 8W 4D 13L from their last 25 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 7W 4D 14L across their last 25 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.76 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
İstanbulspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
İstanbulspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 14W 7D 29L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 24W 8D 18L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
İstanbulspor's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have İstanbulspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
İstanbulspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 4-0 İstanbulspor on 22 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, İstanbulspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, İstanbulspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2024: Trabzonspor 3-0 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 52%, Trabzonspor 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for İstanbulspor and 72% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of İstanbulspor's games and 72% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of İstanbulspor's matches and 72% of Trabzonspor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 84% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out İstanbulspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat İstanbulspor 1-2 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.28 xG and Trabzonspor 2.00 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Trabzonspor attack 1.34 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 24% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 54%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 56%, Trabzonspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.