İstanbulspor 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 36%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
İstanbulspor host Samsunspor at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, İstanbulspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. İstanbulspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for İstanbulspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
İstanbulspor trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Samsunspor trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 54% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 50% | Samsunspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.765 / defence 1.302 | Samsunspor attack 0.827 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.199. İstanbulspor's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 İstanbulspor games / 22 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 36% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 34%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Samsunspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates İstanbulspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 60% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 29 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 36% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG İstanbulspor 1.33 / Samsunspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.765 / def 1.302 | Samsunspor attack 0.827 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Samsunspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 29 January 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
İstanbulspor 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both İstanbulspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): İstanbulspor 0W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Samsunspor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.37
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.29
Samsunspor xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.29 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
İstanbulspor's recent record stands at 3W 4D 15L from 22 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 11L across 22 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Samsunspor by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over İstanbulspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, İstanbulspor have managed 2W 2D 7L from 11 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
The Goals Picture
İstanbulspor are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 3W 4D 15L in their last 22 games (0.59 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Samsunspor away?
İstanbulspor's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.73 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between İstanbulspor and Samsunspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
1
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Samsunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 0, Samsunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 64%, Samsunspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (İstanbulspor) and 46% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 36% of games; Samsunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of İstanbulspor's games and 64% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of İstanbulspor's recent games and 46% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do İstanbulspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
İstanbulspor and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as İstanbulspor and Samsunspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Samsunspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 36% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 34%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 50%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.59. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.