İstanbulspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as İstanbulspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as İstanbulspor welcome Beşiktaş to Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, İstanbulspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's home record at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Beşiktaş's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of İstanbulspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for İstanbulspor, 2 for Beşiktaş and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
İstanbulspor trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beşiktaş trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 55% | Beşiktaş 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.769 / defence 1.358 | Beşiktaş attack 1.039 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.190. İstanbulspor's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 İstanbulspor games / 62 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 48%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 2.08. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 80% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG İstanbulspor 1.11 / Beşiktaş 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.769 / def 1.358 | Beşiktaş attack 1.039 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Beşiktaş xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
İstanbulspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 23% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): İstanbulspor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from İstanbulspor's attack rating (0.77) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
23%
4.42
29%
3.41
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.68
Beşiktaş xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
4%
23.68
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.68 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 15W 11D 36L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 36W 13D 13L from 62 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 0.97 PPG from 31 outings (8W 6D 17L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 15W 7D 9L from 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.85 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 15W 11D 36L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 36W 13D 13L in their last 62 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.97 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.68 PPG.
Have İstanbulspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
İstanbulspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
İstanbulspor
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when İstanbulspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 55%, Beşiktaş 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (İstanbulspor) and 58% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of İstanbulspor's games and 58% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of İstanbulspor's matches and 58% of Beşiktaş's.
Do İstanbulspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat İstanbulspor 0-2 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 1.68 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. İstanbulspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.36 against Beşiktaş attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 23% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 48%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 55%, Beşiktaş 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.