Sivasspor 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu plays host to Sivasspor versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sivasspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sivasspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 6W 2D 2L at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trabzonspor (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 47% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.43 xG and Trabzonspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.958 / defence 0.916 | Trabzonspor attack 1.059 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.244. Data: 38 Sivasspor games / 38 Trabzonspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 50% | Trabzonspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Sivasspor 1.43 / Trabzonspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.958 / def 0.916 | Trabzonspor attack 1.059 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Trabzonspor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 41% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sivasspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (6 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.96) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.06x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.51
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.63
1.21
Trabzonspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.21 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 14W 12D 12L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. Sivasspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Trabzonspor's form line: 21W 4D 13L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. Trabzonspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.76 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 3D 7L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.79 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Pre-Season
Trabzonspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 4D 13L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
3
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 58%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sivasspor) and 53% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sivasspor's games and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sivasspor's recent games and 53% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Sivasspor and Trabzonspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.43 xG and Trabzonspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 41% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 31%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 47%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.42 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.