Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 38%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Samsunspor travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 58% versus Samsunspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Samsunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.948 / defence 1.068 | Samsunspor attack 1.191 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.184. Data: 54 Sivasspor games / 53 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Samsunspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sivasspor 1 – 3 Samsunspor • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Sivasspor 0% / Draw 50% / Samsunspor 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 27% / away 35% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.06 (59% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 63% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Sivasspor home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Samsunspor away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Form edge: Samsunspor lead by 1.00 PPG (2.00 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Sivasspor): Poisson projects 1.56 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Samsunspor): Poisson xG of 1.51 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.06 (59% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 63% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Samsunspor on PPG but Poisson rates Sivasspor higher (38% vs 35% for Samsunspor) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Sivasspor 1.56 / Samsunspor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.948 / def 1.068 | Samsunspor attack 1.191 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Samsunspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 38% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sivasspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
• Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sivasspor 1 – 3 Samsunspor • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Sivasspor 0% / Draw 50% / Samsunspor 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 38% / draw 27% / away 35% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.06 (59% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 63% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sivasspor and Samsunspor in?
• Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Sivasspor home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Samsunspor away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Form edge: Samsunspor lead by 1.00 PPG (2.00 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Sivasspor): Poisson projects 1.56 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Samsunspor): Poisson xG of 1.51 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.06 (59% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 63% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Samsunspor on PPG but Poisson rates Sivasspor higher (38% vs 35% for Samsunspor) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture