Sivasspor 1-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Samsunspor travel to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sivasspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sivasspor's home record at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.78 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.941 / defence 0.919 | Samsunspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.491. Data: 36 Sivasspor games / 0 Samsunspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 51% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Samsunspor 4.17. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 51% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Sivasspor 1.78 / Samsunspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.941 / def 0.919 | Samsunspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Samsunspor xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 51% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sivasspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Samsunspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.94) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
51%
1.94
24%
4.16
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.95
1.16
Samsunspor xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
4%
24.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.16 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Pre-Season
Samsunspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Samsunspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Samsunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sivasspor and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.78 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Samsunspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 51% | Draw 24% | Samsunspor 24%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.