Sivasspor 0-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa meet at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sivasspor 2W, Kasımpaşa 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sivasspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 61% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 54% | Kasımpaşa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.796 / defence 1.031 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.194 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.225. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Sivasspor games / 44 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 29% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 40%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Kasımpaşa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 80% | Kasımpaşa 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 29% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Sivasspor 1.27 / Kasımpaşa 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.796 / def 1.031 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.194 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Sivasspor 0 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 29% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (4 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.19x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
29%
3.43
31%
3.26
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.77
1.51
Kasımpaşa xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.51 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.25 PPG from 44 outings (15W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.25 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sivasspor's home form reads 5W 9D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.32 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.14 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 67%, Kasımpaşa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sivasspor) and 57% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 43% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sivasspor's recent games and 57% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Sivasspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Sivasspor 0-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.51 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.03 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.19 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 29% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 40%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.16 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.