🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Sivasspor welcome Bodrum FK to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodrum FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Bodrum FK have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodrum FK are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Bodrum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Bodrum FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Sivasspor in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Bodrum FK 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 59% | Bodrum FK 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Bodrum FK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.137 / defence 1.017 | Bodrum FK attack 0.688 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.226. Data: 71 Sivasspor games / 32 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bodrum FK 4.76. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodrum FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Bodrum FK 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights