Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 41%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Beşiktaş at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sivasspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beşiktaş stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Beşiktaş have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Sivasspor.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Sivasspor 0–2 Beşiktaş — a Beşiktaş win.
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 57% versus Beşiktaş 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Beşiktaş 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.034 / defence 1.020 | Beşiktaş attack 0.871 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.256. Beşiktaş bring a tight defence (rating 0.774, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sivasspor's projected output down. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 59 games and Beşiktaş's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.42 | Draw 3.36 | Beşiktaş 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Sivasspor 1.38 / Beşiktaş 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.034 / def 1.020 | Beşiktaş attack 0.871 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Sivasspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sivasspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 59 games and Beşiktaş's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.36
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.50
1.12
Beşiktaş xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.12 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 16D 22L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.52 PPG from 58 outings (24W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 11W 11D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.40 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 59%, Beşiktaş 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sivasspor) and 45% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sivasspor's games and 59% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sivasspor's recent games and 45% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 79% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Sivasspor 0-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.38 xG and Beşiktaş 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Beşiktaş attack 0.87 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 41% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Beşiktaş 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.31 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.