Sivasspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Beşiktaş at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.20 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Beşiktaş in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Beşiktaş have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Sivasspor's 1 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 55% | Beşiktaş 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.59 xG and Beşiktaş 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.952 / defence 1.037 | Beşiktaş attack 1.260 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.219. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Sivasspor games / 58 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Beşiktaş 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Sivasspor 1.59 / Beşiktaş 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.952 / def 1.037 | Beşiktaş attack 1.260 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 37% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sivasspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
37%
2.74
27%
3.74
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.59
Beşiktaş xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.46
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.59 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 16D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.97 PPG from 58 outings (34W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 6W 14D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.79 points per game from 28 outings (15W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.91 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 34W 12D 12L in their last 58 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.14 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
0
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Sivasspor 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 68%, Beşiktaş 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sivasspor) and 61% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sivasspor's games and 61% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sivasspor's recent games and 61% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.59 xG and Beşiktaş 1.59 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Beşiktaş attack 1.26 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 37% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 55%, Beşiktaş 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.