🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Sivasspor at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Alanyaspor make the trip to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 10:30 UTC.

Form

Sivasspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Alanyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sivasspor, 1.20 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Sivasspor, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Alanyaspor — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

The historical record gives Sivasspor a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 58% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 51% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.878 / defence 0.936 | Alanyaspor attack 0.763 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.221. Data: 55 Sivasspor games / 55 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 42% | Draw 34% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Alanyaspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Alanyaspor 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights