Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 5W 3D 2L at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 50% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 44% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.155 / defence 0.939 | Trabzonspor attack 1.020 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.209. Data: 54 Samsunspor games / 54 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Samsunspor 2.01 / Trabzonspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.155 / def 0.939 | Trabzonspor attack 1.020 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Trabzonspor xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 55% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Samsunspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.04
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.16
Trabzonspor xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
37.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.16 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 20W 13D 21L from 54 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 18L across 54 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.35 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 20W 13D 21L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 11D 18L in their last 54 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.81 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 48%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Samsunspor) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Samsunspor's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.16 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 55% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 44%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.35 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.