Samsunspor 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Samsunspor welcome Sivasspor to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Samsunspor) versus 1.10 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 0 for Sivasspor and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.16 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.043 / defence 1.002 | Sivasspor attack 0.822 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Samsunspor games / 72 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 63% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Sivasspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 63% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Samsunspor 2.16 / Sivasspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.043 / def 1.002 | Sivasspor attack 0.822 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sivasspor xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 63% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Samsunspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Sivasspor?
Record (3 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Samsunspor and Sivasspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.06
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.19
1.03
Sivasspor xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
2%
51.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.03 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 28W 16D 27L from 71 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 29L across 71 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.41 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 19W 7D 9L from 35 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 9W 6D 20L across 35 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 28W 16D 27L in their last 71 games (1.41 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 23W 19D 29L in their last 71 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Sivasspor away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Samsunspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Sivasspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Samsunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Sivasspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 49%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Samsunspor) and 60% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sivasspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 60% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Samsunspor's recent games and 60% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.16 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Sivasspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.31, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 63% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 17%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.41 PPG, Sivasspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.