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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Samsunspor welcome Sivasspor to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sivasspor away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Samsunspor) versus 1.10 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 0 for Sivasspor and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Samsunspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sivasspor trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Sivasspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.16 xG and Sivasspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.043 / defence 1.002 | Sivasspor attack 0.822 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Samsunspor games / 72 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 63% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Sivasspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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