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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Samsunspor and Çorum FK meet at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Samsunspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.95 xG and Çorum FK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.067 / defence 0.945 | Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Samsunspor games / 0 Çorum FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 60% | Draw 25% | Çorum FK 15%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Çorum FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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