Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Konyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Samsunspor, 1.30 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Samsunspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 48% | Konyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.15 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.730 / defence 0.951 | Konyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.166. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Samsunspor games / 63 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 36% | Draw 35% | Konyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Konyaspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 40% | Konyaspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 36% | Draw 35% | Konyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Samsunspor 1.15 / Konyaspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.730 / def 0.951 | Konyaspor attack 0.928 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Konyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 36% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Samsunspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.73x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.93x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
36%
2.82
35%
2.85
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.18
1.03
Konyaspor xG
2.82
36%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.03 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 27W 18D 17L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 19W 16D 27L from 62 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 5D 19L from 30 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 63%.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 27W 18D 17L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 19W 16D 27L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.77 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Samsunspor) and 53% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Konyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Samsunspor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Samsunspor's recent games and 53% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor and Konyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.15 xG and Konyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 36% | Draw 35% | Konyaspor 29%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.