Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Samsunspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Kasımpaşa's 1.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 1–4 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 59% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 57% | Kasımpaşa 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.11 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.801 / defence 1.419 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.960 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Samsunspor games / 44 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 25% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 51%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Kasımpaşa 1.96. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 70% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 25% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Samsunspor 1.11 / Kasımpaşa 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.801 / def 1.419 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.960 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Kasımpaşa xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 25% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (7 meetings): Samsunspor 3W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.80x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
25%
4.06
24%
4.18
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.71
Kasımpaşa xG
4.06
25%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
4%
22.40
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.71 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 13D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (12W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 7 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 54%, Kasımpaşa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Samsunspor) and 59% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Samsunspor's games and 64% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Samsunspor's matches and 59% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.