Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Samsunspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Kasımpaşa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Samsunspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 1–4 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 57% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 55% | Kasımpaşa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.31 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.854 / defence 1.462 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.024 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Samsunspor games / 42 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 28% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 48%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Kasımpaşa 2.08. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 28% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Samsunspor 1.31 / Kasımpaşa 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.854 / def 1.462 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.024 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Kasımpaşa xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 28% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (7 meetings): Samsunspor 3W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 3W.
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
28%
3.53
23%
4.31
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.09
1.78
Kasımpaşa xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
5%
20.89
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.78 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 13D 15L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (11W 15D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.31 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.38 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 7 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Samsunspor) and 62% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Samsunspor's games and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Samsunspor's matches and 62% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.