Samsunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 29 as Samsunspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Samsunspor) versus 1.40 (Kasımpaşa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 2, Kasımpaşa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 4–1 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Kasımpaşa 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 46% | Kasımpaşa 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.33 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.116 / defence 1.075 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.199 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.195. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Samsunspor games / 65 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 25%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 70% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 55% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Samsunspor 2.33 / Kasımpaşa 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.116 / def 1.075 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.199 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Kasımpaşa xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Samsunspor 0 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 55% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 1.12x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
55%
1.82
20%
4.96
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.87
1.54
Kasımpaşa xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
10%
10.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
2%
41.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.54 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 65 games, going 26W 16D 23L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.40 PPG from 65 outings (24W 19D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.45 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 18W 7D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.31 points per game from 32 outings (11W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.68 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 68%.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 26W 16D 23L in their last 65 games (1.45 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.91 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Samsunspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Samsunspor) and 69% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Samsunspor's games and 69% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Samsunspor's matches and 69% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Samsunspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 0-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.33 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.54 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.20 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 55% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 25%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Kasımpaşa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 46%, Kasımpaşa 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.45 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.