Samsunspor 2-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 0W 2D 7L across 9 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.22 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 0W 1D 2L at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Hatayspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hatayspor are 1.18 PPG clear of Samsunspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.40 vs 0.22). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 44% versus Hatayspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 33% | Hatayspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 0.95 xG and Hatayspor 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.651 / defence 1.152 | Hatayspor attack 0.914 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.199. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Samsunspor games / 46 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Hatayspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 33% | Hatayspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Samsunspor 0.95 / Hatayspor 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.651 / def 1.152 | Hatayspor attack 0.914 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Hatayspor xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 26% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Samsunspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Hatayspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 0W-2D-7L in 9 | 0.22 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.65) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.91x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 9/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
26%
3.91
33%
3.00
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.21
1.26
Hatayspor xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.82
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.26 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 2D 7L for 0.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Hatayspor in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 0W 2D 7L in their last 9 games (0.22 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 0.33 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Samsunspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Samsunspor 2-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Hatayspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Samsunspor) and 33% (Hatayspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Samsunspor and 33% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hatayspor in 67%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 67% of games; Hatayspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 33% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Samsunspor's recent games and 33% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Hatayspor 2-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.95 xG and Hatayspor 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.65 / defence 1.15 against Hatayspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 9/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 26% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 41%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 33%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.22. Form was overturned, with Samsunspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.