Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Göztepe travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Göztepe's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 2, Göztepe 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 62% versus Göztepe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 56% | Göztepe 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.078 / defence 0.973 | Göztepe attack 0.960 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.059. Data: 34 Samsunspor games / 34 Göztepe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 50% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Göztepe 4.55. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 50% | Göztepe 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 17 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 50% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Samsunspor 1.59 / Göztepe 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.078 / def 0.973 | Göztepe attack 0.960 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Göztepe xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 17 August 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor 3 - 3 Göztepe.
Where is Samsunspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Göztepe part of?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 50% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Samsunspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
Record (4 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Göztepe in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (1.08) and Göztepe's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.53
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.58
0.99
Göztepe xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
22.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.99 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 12D 9L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. Samsunspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.62 PPG from 34 outings (14W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. Göztepe haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.50 PPG, Göztepe on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 7D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.24 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Pre-Season
Göztepe
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 14W 13D 7L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Göztepe away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Göztepe in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Samsunspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
From 5 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Göztepe see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 53%, Göztepe 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Samsunspor) and 35% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Göztepe in 41%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 35% of games; Göztepe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 41% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Samsunspor's recent games and 35% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Samsunspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Samsunspor and Göztepe drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.99 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Göztepe attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 50% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 22%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 56%, Göztepe 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.50 PPG, Göztepe 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.