Samsunspor 3-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Göztepe travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Göztepe's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Samsunspor at 1.70 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 1, Göztepe 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 52% versus Göztepe 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 54% | Göztepe 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.33 xG and Göztepe 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.036 / defence 0.970 | Göztepe attack 0.954 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.136. Data: 69 Samsunspor games / 69 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 26%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Göztepe 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 50% | Göztepe 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Samsunspor 1.33 / Göztepe 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.036 / def 0.970 | Göztepe attack 0.954 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Göztepe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor 3 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Samsunspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Göztepe part of?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 40% chance of winning, Göztepe a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Samsunspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
Record (3 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Göztepe in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (1.04) and Göztepe's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
40%
2.51
34%
2.95
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.05
Göztepe xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.05 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor come into this having played 69 games, going 31W 19D 19L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.52 PPG from 69 outings (27W 24D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.62 PPG, Göztepe on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Samsunspor's home form reads 17W 9D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 1.12 points per game from 34 outings (9W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.46 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 31W 19D 19L in their last 69 games (1.62 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 27W 24D 18L in their last 69 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Göztepe away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.76 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Göztepe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Samsunspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
From 5 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Göztepe 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Samsunspor) and 44% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Göztepe in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 59% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Samsunspor's recent games and 44% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Göztepe 3-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.33 xG and Göztepe 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Göztepe attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 40% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 26%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 54%, Göztepe 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Göztepe's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.62 PPG, Göztepe 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.