Samsunspor 4-3 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Göztepe travel to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have recorded 2W 3D 0L from 5 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Samsunspor at 1.60 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Samsunspor 0% | Göztepe 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 20% | Göztepe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.16 xG and Göztepe 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.865 / defence 0.853 | Göztepe attack 0.761 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.230. Data: 44 Samsunspor games / 5 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 43% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 24%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Göztepe 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 40% | Göztepe 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 43% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Samsunspor 1.16 / Göztepe 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.865 / def 0.853 | Göztepe attack 0.761 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Göztepe xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor 4 - 3 Göztepe.
Where is Samsunspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Göztepe part of?
Samsunspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 43% chance of winning, Göztepe a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Samsunspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Göztepe in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.86) and Göztepe's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
43%
2.35
34%
2.98
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
1.96
0.80
Göztepe xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.80 for Göztepe, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 0D 1L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Göztepe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their games; Göztepe in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 games (2.40 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Samsunspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their recent games, Göztepe in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Samsunspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
1
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Göztepe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Samsunspor 3-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Göztepe?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Samsunspor 0% BTTS, Göztepe 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Samsunspor and 40% for Göztepe.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Göztepe in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 40% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Samsunspor's recent games and 40% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Göztepe 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Göztepe 4-3 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.16 xG and Göztepe 0.80 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.85 against Göztepe attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 43% | Draw 34% | Göztepe 24%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 20%, Göztepe 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Samsunspor scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.