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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Full Analysis

Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 21 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Samsunspor (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season.

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

The form ledger tips toward Samsunspor. A 1.50 PPG lead over Fatih Karagümrük (2.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Samsunspor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 1W, 0D.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 60% versus Fatih Karagümrük 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.45 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.948 / defence 0.977 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.879 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.195. Data: 41 Samsunspor games / 5 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.17. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Samsunspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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