🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Samsunspor (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Samsunspor face Eyüpspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Eyüpspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2027, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Samsunspor — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Samsunspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Samsunspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 62% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 56% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.77 xG and Eyüpspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.063 / defence 0.948 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Samsunspor games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 51% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Eyüpspor 4.55. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights