Samsunspor 1-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Eyüpspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Eyüpspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.20 xG and Eyüpspor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.932 / defence 0.881 | Eyüpspor attack 0.637 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.272. Data: 47 Samsunspor games / 47 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Eyüpspor 5.00. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 50% | Eyüpspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 45% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Samsunspor 1.20 / Eyüpspor 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.932 / def 0.881 | Eyüpspor attack 0.637 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Eyüpspor xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 45% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Samsunspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (2 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Eyüpspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
45%
2.21
35%
2.88
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
1.91
0.71
Eyüpspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.71 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Samsunspor come into this having played 47 games, going 24W 12D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.30 PPG from 47 outings (17W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Samsunspor's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.91 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Eyüpspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 52%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Samsunspor) and 39% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Samsunspor's recent games and 39% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Eyüpspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.20 xG and Eyüpspor 0.71 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Eyüpspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 45% | Draw 35% | Eyüpspor 20%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Eyüpspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.