Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Beşiktaş meet at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beşiktaş (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beşiktaş away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Samsunspor, 2 for Beşiktaş and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Samsunspor 1–1 Beşiktaş — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Beşiktaş 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Beşiktaş 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Samsunspor surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Beşiktaş have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 0.94 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.807 / defence 1.021 | Beşiktaş attack 1.180 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.197. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 65 games and Beşiktaş's last 65.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 4.61 | Draw 3.09 | Beşiktaş 2.18. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Samsunspor 0.94 / Beşiktaş 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.807 / def 1.021 | Beşiktaş attack 1.180 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 22% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Samsunspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.18x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 65 games and Beşiktaş's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
22%
4.61
32%
3.09
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.44 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 19D 18L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 33W 18D 14L from 65 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.80 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 32 home games (15W 9D 8L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 13W 13D 6L from their last 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.72 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Samsunspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 28W 19D 18L in their last 65 games (1.58 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 33W 18D 14L in their last 65 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Beşiktaş 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Samsunspor) and 34% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 34%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 53% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Samsunspor's recent games and 34% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 81% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.94 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Samsunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.