Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Samsunspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Beşiktaş meet at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beşiktaş (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Samsunspor, 2 for Beşiktaş and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Beşiktaş 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Beşiktaş 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 0.94 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.807 / defence 1.021 | Beşiktaş attack 1.180 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.197. Data: 65 Samsunspor games / 65 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Beşiktaş 2.17. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 40% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Samsunspor 0.94 / Beşiktaş 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.807 / def 1.021 | Beşiktaş attack 1.180 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 22% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Samsunspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.18x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
22%
4.61
32%
3.09
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.44 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 19D 18L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 33W 18D 14L from 65 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.80 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (15W 9D 8L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 13W 13D 6L from 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.72 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 28W 19D 18L in their last 65 games (1.58 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 33W 18D 14L in their last 65 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Beşiktaş 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Samsunspor) and 34% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 34%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 53% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Samsunspor's recent games and 34% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.94 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Beşiktaş attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 22% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 46%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Samsunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.58 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.