Samsunspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Beşiktaş meet at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Samsunspor, 1.00 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 55% versus Beşiktaş 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 42% | Beşiktaş 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.009 / defence 0.897 | Beşiktaş attack 0.959 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.218. Data: 38 Samsunspor games / 38 Beşiktaş games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 46% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 25%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 4.00. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Samsunspor 40% | Beşiktaş 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 46% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Samsunspor 1.50 / Beşiktaş 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.009 / def 0.897 | Beşiktaş attack 0.959 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Samsunspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 46% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Samsunspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.96x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.38
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Beşiktaş xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.05 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 10D 17L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. Samsunspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Beşiktaş's form line: 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. Beşiktaş haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.47 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.37 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Pre-Season
Beşiktaş
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.84 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 53%, Beşiktaş 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Samsunspor) and 53% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 53% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Samsunspor's recent games and 53% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Samsunspor 0-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Beşiktaş attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 46% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 25%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Beşiktaş win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 42%, Beşiktaş 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.13 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.