Samsunspor 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Samsunspor take on Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Başakşehir at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Samsunspor have won 1, Başakşehir 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 0–4 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 51% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Başakşehir 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.10 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.928 / defence 0.853 | Başakşehir attack 1.084 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.300. Data: 51 Samsunspor games / 51 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 29% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 34%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Başakşehir 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 60% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 29% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 51% | xG Samsunspor 1.10 / Başakşehir 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.928 / def 0.853 | Başakşehir attack 1.084 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Başakşehir xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Samsunspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Samsunspor 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Samsunspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 29% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Samsunspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Samsunspor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Başakşehir in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.93) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
36%
2.76
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.30
1.20
Başakşehir xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.20 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 25W 14D 12L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 20W 11D 20L from 51 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.75 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 10W 3D 13L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 25W 14D 12L in their last 51 games (1.75 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 20W 11D 20L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.85 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Başakşehir runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
1
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Başakşehir 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Samsunspor) and 58% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 54% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Samsunspor's recent games and 58% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 0-2 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.10 xG and Başakşehir 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Başakşehir attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 29% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Başakşehir 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.75 PPG, Başakşehir 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.