Samsunspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Alanyaspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 December 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Samsunspor, 2 for Alanyaspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Alanyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.935 / defence 0.797 | Alanyaspor attack 0.971 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.364. Samsunspor's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Samsunspor games / 49 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Alanyaspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Alanyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Samsunspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Samsunspor 50% | Alanyaspor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 1 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Samsunspor 1.29 / Alanyaspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.935 / def 0.797 | Alanyaspor attack 0.971 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 December 2025 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Samsunspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 40% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Samsunspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 2W.
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.94) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.11
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.35
1.06
Alanyaspor xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.06 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 25W 13D 11L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 15W 15D 19L from 49 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Samsunspor are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alanyaspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Samsunspor have posted 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (14W 5D 6L).
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 8D 12L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 25W 13D 11L in their last 49 games (1.80 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 15W 15D 19L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.88 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Samsunspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
3
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 48%, Alanyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Samsunspor) and 48% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 60% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Samsunspor's recent games and 48% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Samsunspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Alanyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 40% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 28%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 51%, Alanyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.