Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rizespor take on Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sivasspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 5 matches, Rizespor stand at 3W 1D 1L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Across their last 10 games, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Rizespor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2022, ended Rizespor 1–2 Sivasspor — a Sivasspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rizespor 60% and Sivasspor 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 60% | Sivasspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.09 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.723 / defence 0.824 | Sivasspor attack 0.990 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.357. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Rizespor's last 5 games and Sivasspor's last 41.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 37% | Sivasspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.23 | Draw 2.69 | Sivasspor 3.14. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 60% (last 5 games) | Sivasspor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 6 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 37% | Sivasspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Rizespor 1.09 / Sivasspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.723 / def 0.824 | Sivasspor attack 0.990 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sivasspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Sivasspor part of?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 6) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 31% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Rizespor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 5 games and Sivasspor's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
37%
2.69
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Sivasspor xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.11 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Rizespor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Rizespor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 80%.
Defensively: Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rizespor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rizespor at 60%, Sivasspor at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rizespor) and 40% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Sivasspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rizespor's games and 80% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rizespor and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Rizespor's recent matches and 100% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Rizespor and Sivasspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.09 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.72 / defence 0.82 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 31% | Draw 37% | Sivasspor 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 60%, Sivasspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.