Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 48%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Samsunspor are 0.60 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Samsunspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Samsunspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.78 xG and Samsunspor 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.091 / defence 1.030 | Samsunspor attack 1.038 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.188. Data: 35 Rizespor games / 35 Samsunspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 48% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Samsunspor 3.85. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 48% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rizespor 1.78 / Samsunspor 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.091 / def 1.030 | Samsunspor attack 1.038 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Samsunspor xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Rizespor 0 - 2 Samsunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Samsunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 48% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rizespor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Record (6 meetings): Rizespor 3W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (1.09) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.04x) against Rizespor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.85
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.27
Samsunspor xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.27 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 11D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.49 PPG from 35 outings (13W 13D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Rizespor against 1.49 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Samsunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.59 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
From 7 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 47%, Samsunspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rizespor) and 59% (Samsunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Rizespor's games and 71% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Rizespor's matches and 59% of Samsunspor's.
Do Rizespor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Rizespor 0-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.78 xG and Samsunspor 1.27 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 48% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 26%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Samsunspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.26 PPG, Samsunspor 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.