Rizespor 4-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rizespor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Rizespor have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Samsunspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rizespor against 1.10 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2025, ended Rizespor 1–1 Samsunspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Samsunspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Samsunspor 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rizespor surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.917 / defence 1.033 | Samsunspor attack 1.009 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.151. Data: built from Rizespor's last 63 games and Samsunspor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.79 | Draw 3.06 | Samsunspor 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 30% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 9 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Rizespor 1.29 / Samsunspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.917 / def 1.033 | Samsunspor attack 1.009 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Samsunspor xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 9 April 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Rizespor 4 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Samsunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 36% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rizespor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.92) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.01x) against Rizespor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 63 games and Samsunspor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.06
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.49
1.20
Samsunspor xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.20 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 13D 28L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.59 PPG from 63 outings (27W 19D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Rizespor against 1.59 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 22W 13D 28L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Samsunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.55 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won Samsunspor 3-0 Rizespor on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 48%, Samsunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rizespor) and 52% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 36%; Rizespor have failed to score in 26% of games; Samsunspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Rizespor's recent matches and 52% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rizespor's recent games and 52% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Rizespor's recent matches and 71% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Samsunspor 4-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.29 xG and Samsunspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Samsunspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 36% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 31%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Samsunspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.25 PPG, Samsunspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.